Skip to content

Monthly Archives: November 2020

QFRG and DSLab – monthly meetings

QFRG&DSLab

The joint project of Quantitative Finance Research Group and Data Science Lab open seminars has been started in 2019/2020 academic year and was thought of as the place for discussion of the newest research ideas coming from the latest scientific articles. We focus on research from the area of data science, quantitative finance, financial econometrics, machine learning, and risk management.

——————————————————————————-
The schedule of the forthcoming meetings is as follows:
——————————————————————————-

  • 2024-12-02, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 49th research seminar, title: Can Artificial Intelligence Trade The Stock Market?
    authors: Jędrzej Maskiewicz, Paweł Sakowski
    additional info: will be added soon
    published/working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2024-11-18, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 48th research seminar, title:
    authors: …
    additional info: …
    published/working paper: …
    presentation: …
    the recording of the presentation: …
  • 2024-11-04, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 47th research seminar, title: In Pursuit of Trend-Following Beta: The Promise and Pitfalls of Replication
    authors: Steven Braun, Corey Hoffstein, Juliusz Jabłecki
    additional info: poster
    published/working paper: SSRN paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2024-10-14, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 46th research seminar, title: Nighttime Lights as a Proxy for Economic Development on a Local Level – The Case of the US
    authors: Patrick Sliz, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    published/working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2024-10-07, Monday, 6.40pm-8.00pm, 45th research seminar, title: Statistical arbitrage in multi-pair trading strategy based on graph clustering algorithms in US equities market
    authors: Adam Korniejczuk, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    published/working paper: SSRN paper
    published/working paper: arXiv paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2024-04-08, Monday, 6.30pm-7.45pm, 44th research seminar, title: Uncovering the Asymmetric Information Content of High-Frequency Options
    authors: Mattia Bevilacqua
    additional info: poster
    published/working paper: paper
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2024-03-25, Monday, 4.45pm-6.15pm, 43rd research seminar, title: Analyzing Bitcoin Movements through Artificial Intelligence Evaluation of Facebook Sentiments
    authors: Daniel Traian Pele
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation:
  • 2024-03-04, Monday, 6.30pm-7.45pm, 42nd research seminar, title: Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting
    authors: Bartosz Bieganowski, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    published paper: paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2024-02-05, Monday, 5.45pm-7.00pm, 41st research seminar, title: On track to a green future: new insights on the impact of train transport on Warsaw suburban real estate market
    authors: Paweł Sieczak, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-12-04, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 40th research seminar, title: Low-Volatility Equity Strategies and Interest Rates: A Bittersweet Perspective
    authors: Juliusz Jabłecki
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2023-11-27, Monday, 5.45pm-7.15pm, 39th research seminar, title: Beyond Yelp – predicting restaurant closures based on Google Maps data
    authors: Tomasz Starakiewicz and Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-11-13, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 38th research seminar, title: Explaining and Forecasting Abnormal Returns and Volume by Investor Sentiment Indicators
    authors: Szymon Lis, Paweł Sakowski, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2023-10-23, Monday, 5.45pm-7.15pm, 37th research seminar, title: How much is my harm worth? Predicting the amount of compensation for harm awarded by the Polish courts
    authors: Maciej Świtała
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-10-09, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 36th research seminar, title: Comprehensive Comparison of Quantitative Finance Models for Hedging of Options Portfolio
    authors: Maciej Wysocki, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-06-12, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 35th research seminar,title: The Credit Card Debt Puzzle and Noncognitive Ability
    author: Hwan-Sik Choi
    additional info: poster
    published paper: working paper
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2023-05-29, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 34th research seminar,title: How to win Econometric Games”
    authors: Mateusz Buczyński, Michał Kunster, Michał Woźniak
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-04-24, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 33rd research seminar,title: Proof-of-work versus proof-of-stake coins as possible hedges against green and dirty energy
    authors: Barbara Będowska-Sójka, Agata Kliber
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-04-03, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 32nd research seminar,title: The Systemic Risk Approach Based on Implied and Realized Volatility
    authors: Paweł Sakowski, Rafał Sieradzki, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-03-06, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 31st research seminar,title: On Randomization of Affine Diffusion Processes with Application to Pricing of Options on VIX and S&P 500
    authors: Lech A. Grzelak
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-02-27, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 30th research seminar,title: Deep learning–based automated measurements of the scrotal circumference of Norwegian Red bulls from 3D images
    authors: Joanna Bremer, Michał Maj
    additional info: poster
    published paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2023-02-06, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 29th research seminar,title: The Properties of Alpha Risk Parity Portfolios
    authors: Jérôme Gava, Julien Turc
    additional info: poster
    published paper: published paper
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2023-01-23, Monday, 3.00pm-6.00pm, 28th research seminar,
    additional info: poster
    3.00pm
    title: Crypto volatility forecasting: ML vs GARCH
    authors: Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Härdle
    the recording of the presentation: recording
    4:15pm-4:30pm
    coffee break
    4:30pm
    title: Cross-exchange Crypto Risk: A High-frequency Dynamic Network Perspective
    authors: Yifu Wang
    the recording of the presentation: recording
    5:10pm
    title: Quantinar – The 2P2 Platform for Knowledge Sharing
    authors: Raul Bag
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2023-01-16, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 27th research seminar,title: Performance and Flow of SRI Mutual Funds and Investors Sophistication
    authors: Olga Klinkowska, Yuan Zhao
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-12-19, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 26th research seminar,title: Absorption capacity of regions in terms of supporting entrepreneurship under the EU
    Cohesion Policy. New evidence

    authors: Marcin Wajda, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2022-12-05, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 25th research seminar,title: Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index
    authors: Katarzyna Kryńska, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-11-21, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 24th research seminar,title: Is attention all you need for intraday Forex trading?
    authors: Przemysław Grądzki, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-11-07, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm, 23rd research seminar,title: A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy
    authors: Illia Baranochnikov, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-10-24, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm, 22nd research seminar,title: What makes Punks worthy? Valuation of Non-Fungible Tokens based on the CryptoPunks collectio
    authors: Ewelina Plachimowicz, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-10-10, Monday, 6.30pm-8.00pm,title: Investment Portfolio Optimization Based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Deep Learning Models
    authors: Maciej Wysocki, Paweł Sakowski
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-06-20, Monday, 5.00pm-6.00pm,title: Satellite imaginary for social data science
    authors: Xaquín S. Perez-Sindin, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
  • 2022-05-09, Monday, 5.00pm-6.00pm,title: The modeling of earnings per share of Polish companies for post-financial crisis period using random walk and ARIMA models
    authors: Wojciech Kuryłek
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: will be added soon
  • 2022-04-11, Monday, 5.00pm-6.00pm,title: Application of Machine Learning in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on Global Stock
    markets

    authors: Jan Grudniewicz, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    working paper: working paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-03-21, Monday, 5.00pm-6.00pm,title: LSTM in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on BTC and S&P500 index
    authors: Jakub Michańków, Paweł Sakowski, Robert Ślepaczuk
    additional info: poster
    final publication: paper
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-02-28, Monday, 5.00pm-6.00pm,title: Textual Content and Academic Selectivness. A Case of Economic Journals
    authors: Paweł Baranowski, Szymon Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2022-01-17, Monday, 3.00pm-4.30pm,title: Forecasting of the Day-Ahead Energy Prices
    authors: Maciej Przybyła, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2021-12-13, Monday, 3.00pm-4.30pm,title: Effective Local Volatility Model – with Application to Pricing American Basket Options
    authors: Juliusz Jabłecki
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2021-11-22, Monday, 4.45pm-6.30pm,
    title: Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Polish Judicial System Using Topic Modelling Tools
    authors: Maciej Świtała (PhD student at WNE UW)
    additional info: poster
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: presentation
    the recording of the presentation: recording
  • 2021-05-17, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm,
    title: Identification of Scams in Initial Coin Offerings with Machine Learning
    authors: Bedil Karimov and Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster 
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation is available here: will be added soon
  • 2021-04-19, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm,
    title: XAI Tools as a Part of the Best Practices in Model Selection for Business Decision Modelling. Example of marketing campaign success forecasting
    authors: Marcin Chlebus
    additional info: poster 
    working paper: will be added soon
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation is available here: will be added soon
  • 2021-03-22, Monday, 5.00pm-6.30pm,
    title: The impact of the content of Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statements on financial markets – text mining approach
    authors: Ewelina Osowska, Piotr Wójcik
    additional info: poster 
    working paper: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/files/7216/0210/4545/WNE_WP339.pdf
    presentation: will be added soon
    the recording of the presentation is available here: recording
  • 2020-01-21, Monday, 4.45pm-5.45pm,
    title: We Just Explained the Factors of Growth with Machine Learning!
    authors: Piotr Wójcik, Bartłomiej Wieczorek
    additional info: poster
    where: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50
    room: B002
    working paper: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/files/5216/0322/9893/WNE_WP344.pdf
  • 2019-11-19, Monday, 4.45pm-5.45pm,
    title: Predicting well-being based on features visible from space – the case of Warsaw!”
    authors: Piotr Wójcik, Krystian Andruszek
    additional info: poster
    where: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50
    room: B002
    working paper: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/files/1416/0322/8088/WNE_WP343.pdf
  • 2019-10-15, Monday, 4.45pm-5.45pm,
    title: Diversification with cryptocurrencies? OMG, really?!
    authors: Paweł Sakowski, Przemysław Ryś
    additional info: poster
    where: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50
    room: B002

COVID-19 w Polsce – gdzie jesteśmy i dokąd zmierzamy?

coronavirus_picture

W naszych najnowszych analizach tym razem nie ma żadnego machine learning, ani bardziej zaawansowanych technik obliczeniowych. Jest to jednak działanie w pełni zamierzone, ponieważ czasem wystarczą proste operacje arytmetyczne, aby na gruncie dostępnych danych pokazać kilka istotnych obserwacji i wniosków, które powinny być wyraźnie zrozumiane.

5. 2020-12-18

W kolejnym wpisie ponownie jedynie aktualizujemy poprzednie dane, a jego tytuł tym razem brzmi jeszcze mniej optymistycznie: “Prawie 33 tys. nadwyżkowych zgonów w ciągu ostatnich 13 tygodni! Czy oficjalne statystyki odniosą się w końcu do pytania: na co umierają Polacy?”

W dalszym ciągu analizujemy dane GUS oraz KPRM RSC dotyczące liczby tygodniowych zgonów (okres od 38. do 50. tygodnia, czyli do 2020-12-13).

W tym okresie liczba zgonów powyżej średniej za okres 2015-2019 wyniosła 53.6 tys., zaś śmiertelność z powodu COVID-19 wg. oficjalnych statystyk była w tym samym okresie na poziomie 20.8 tys. osób.

Należy kolejny raz zapytać wprost: czy te obserwacje są efektem zaniedbania profilaktyki większości śmiercionośnych chorób w trakcie epidemii COVID-19, i co mogliśmy lub możemy zrobić w najbliższym czasie aby zahamować tę falę nadwyżkowej śmiertelności?

Nasze obliczenia oraz źródła dostępne są w tym arkuszu: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q0rhf8ZTxK8Ii2Al0SrTPQ9Xtqb5glvwnf0LQtmIw8E/edit?usp=sharing

Źródła:

4. 2020-11-28

Nasz nastepny wpis będzie aktualizacją poprzednich danych dla dłuższgo okresu, a jego tytuł brzmi: “Ponad 24 tys. nadwyżkowych zgonów w ciągu ostatnich 9 tygodni! Kiedy oficjalne statystyki odniosą się do pytania: na co umierają Polacy?”

W dalszym ciągu analizujemy dane GUS oraz KPRM RSC dotyczące liczby tygodniowych zgonów (okres od 38. do 46. tygodnia, czyli do 2020-11-15).

W tym okresie liczba zgonów powyżej średniej za okres 2015-2019 wyniosła 32,5 tys., zaś śmiertelność z powodu COVID-19 wg. oficjalnych statystyk była w tym samym okresie na poziomie 8.3 tys. osób.

Należy kolejny raz zapytać wprost: czy te obserwacje są efektem zaniedbania profilaktyki większości śmiercionośnych chorób w trakcie epidemii COVID-19?

Nasze obliczenia oraz źródła dostępne są w tym arkuszu: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q0rhf8ZTxK8Ii2Al0SrTPQ9Xtqb5glvwnf0LQtmIw8E/edit?usp=sharing

Źródła:

3. 2020-11-17

Kolejny bardzo krótki wpis ograniczający się do trzech wykresów i kilku zdań ma następujący tytuł: “Na co umarło 11,5 tys. Polaków w październiku 2020?”

Przyjrzeliśmy się w nim danym dotyczącym liczby tygodniowych zgonów opublikowanym wczoraj przez GUS (okres od 41. do 44. tygodnia 2020).

W tym okresie liczba zgonów powyżej średniej za okres 2015-2019 wyniosła 14,5 tys., zaś śmiertelność z powodu COVID-19 według oficjalnych statystyk była w tym samym okresie na poziomie 3,1 tys. osób.

Czyżbyśmy właśnie zaczęli obserwować tragiczne skutki zapaści służby zdrowia w Polsce?

Nasze obliczenia oraz źródła dostępne są w tym arkuszu: https://lnkd.in/gRjTE-3

Do ewentualnych komentarzy zachęcamy na linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robert-%C5%9Blepaczuk-phd-2053036_covid-covid19insights-covid19impact-activity-6734435907451129856-52fR

2. 2020-11-16

Zachęceni licznymi komentarzami do naszej pierwszej analizy,  postanowiliśmy ją zaktualizować oraz dodać kilka nowych wątków, skupiając się na standardowych i bardziej kontrowersyjnych zagadnieniach związanych z walką z epidemią COVID-19 w Polsce.

Najnowsza wersja analizy pt.: COVID-19  w Polsce – gdzie jesteśmy i dokąd zmierzamy? – II_raport_2020-11-15, znajduje się tutaj

W najnowszym raporcie poza aktualizacją danych i dokładniejszym podkreśleniem podstawowych obserwacji, wniosków i pytań, dodatkowo uwzględniliśmy:

  • porównanie liczby przypadków aktywnych (=potwierdzone przypadki pomniejszone o przypadki wyleczone),
  • porównanie dziennej śmiertelności podstawowych przyczyn zgonów z COVID-19 w dwóch wersjach,
  • analizę przypadków śmiertelności z powodu COVID-19 z chorobami współistniejącymi w odniesieniu do całkowitej liczby przypadków śmiertelnych z powodu COVID-19,
  • odniesienie do zmian definicji przypadku COVID-19 wprowadzonej przez Ministerstwo Zdrowia na początku listopada,
  • analizę liczby testów oraz współczynnika wykrywalności ((=potwierdzone przypadki / liczba testów)

1. 2020-11-06

Poniżej przedstawiamy krótką analizę pt.: COVID-19 w Polsce – gdzie jesteśmy i dokąd zmierzamy?, opracowaną przez QFRG WNE UW, poprzez którą chcieliśmy zwrócić uwagę na kilka istotnych faktów związanych z epidemią COVID-19 w Polsce oraz jej konsekwencjami.

Życzymy przyjemnej lektury